On the Record

Newsroom | News Releases | Press Clips | Office of Government Affairs | For Journalists

Social science, capacity building, and societally relevant work at NCAR & UCAR

NCAR Research Linking Weather, Climate, and Society

The National Center for Atmospheric Research closed the Center for Capacity Building (CCB) in August 2008 because of persistent budget issues (see related news release).

NCAR continues to invest in both the social sciences and capacity building through its Institute for the Study of Society and Environment and numerous initiatives across NCAR and UCAR. The following overview provides links for exploring some of these efforts.

Institute for the Study of Society and the Environment
ISSE is NCAR's focal point for the integration of the physical, environmental, and social sciences, with 17 scientists and support staff, plus numerous scientific visitors and graduate students. ISSE conducts interdisciplinary research on the complex interactions between people, the atmosphere, and the environment. The institute also develops information and tools to help decision makers and managers cope with weather and climate risks. More about ISSE >

Examples of cross-cutting collaborative projects based in ISSE include:

Collaborative Program on the Societal Impacts and Economic Benefits of Weather Information
NCAR's Societal Impacts Program is a dedicated focal point for assembling, coordinating, developing, and synthesizing research and information on the societal impacts and economic benefits of weather information. More about SIP >

Weather and Climate Impacts Assessment Program
WCIASP integrates the physical, environmental, and social sciences to make scientific knowledge about weather and climate more accesible to decision makers. The focus is on critical gaps in weather and climate knowledge, such as integration of uncertainty analysis across all parts of the climate change problem. More about Weather and Climate Impacts Assessment >

Weather and Society Integrated Studies
WAS*IS integrates social science into meteorological research and practice through workshops and projects that help foster new relationships and propogate new tools and concepts for more effective socioeconomic applications and evaluations of weather information and products. More about WAS*IS >

Advanced Study Program
Several ASP postdoctoral researchers have devoted their two-year NCAR fellowships to work that helps vulnerable members of society. For example:

Mercy Borbor Cordova investigated air quality in Guayaquil, Ecuador, where she made connections and shared results with the community and local government to try to improve conditions there. Mary Hayden is studying the interaction of local climate with the transmission of dengue fever and working with people in Puerto Rico and the U.S.-Mexico border region to reduce the transmission of this mosquito-borne virus. The two researchers are now collaborating on a dengue pilot project in Guayaquil.

Several other researchers are focused on helping to provide better guidance to people living in Africa's Sahel. For example, farmers and herders in the semi-arid Sahel region of West Africa will gain from efforts to better understand the large swings in rainfall they must deal with during the growing season and from year to year. More about the Advanced Study Program >

NCAR Collaborations with UCAR

NCAR scientists also devote time and energy to UCAR's efforts to build capacity and exchange knowledge in support of societal needs across the United States and around the world. Many of these programs focus on supporting and developing the capacity of researchers from underrepresented groups and in developing countries. The following are a few noteworthy examples:

UCAR Community Building Program
This program works to expand the community of researchers focusing on weather, climate, and society to include more institutions serving students from groups that are underrepresented in the sciences. These efforts go hand-in-hand with opportunities to serve diverse and currently underserved communities. More about the Community Building Program >

Examples of cross-cutting collaborative projects based in the Community Building Program include:

UCAR Africa Initiative
This effort focuses on building sustainable partnerships between NCAR and UCAR and African institutions to pursue research and applications for the benefit of the African people. More about the UCAR Africa Initiative >

Planning for Seven Generations: Indigenous & Scientific Approaches to Climate Change
This groundbreaking 2008 meeting brought tribal leaders and young scientists from the American Indian, Native Alaskan, and other indigenous communities together with climate scientists. During three days the lively exchanges focused on finding opportunities for the two perspectives to share strategies for understanding, adapting to, and mitigating climate change, with a particular focus on American Indian Lands. More about Planning for Seven Generations >

SOARS: Significant Opportunities in Atmospheric Research and Science
SOARS bridges the undergraduate to graduate school experience for culturally diverse students interested in the atmospheric and related sciences by providing educational and research opportunities, mentoring, career counseling and guidance, and financial support. SOARS has become a model for mentoring programs across the country and was recognized by the White House in 2001 with the Presidential Award for Science, Mathematics, and Engineering Mentoring. More about SOARS >

GLOBE Program: Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment
Based at UCAR, the multiagency GLOBE Program is a hands-on science and education program for primary and secondary students, teachers, scientists, and community members around the world who study and research the dynamics of Earth's environment. In partnership with NASA and NSF, the international GLOBE network has reached more than a million students in over 20,000 schools located in 110 countries since its inception in 1995. NCAR scientist Margaret LeMone serves as the program's chief scientist. More about the GLOBE Program >

Partnerships and Technology Transfer

In addition to the kinds of activities outlined above, NCAR and UCAR continue to focus on transferring the knowledge, tools, and technology emerging from our research in the physical, environmental, and social sciences. Our founding principle of science in service to society permeates all our activities, from basic inquiry to technology transfer.

Our focus on and commitment to community models and community data services is designed to promote the broadest possible use of weather and climate information for the benefit of society. You'll find links to some of these services below.

Related Links

Articles

Forecasting System Provides Flood Warnings to Vulnerable Residents of Bangladesh (news release, August 2, 2007)

NCAR to partner with World Bank in Latin America and the Caribbean (Staff Notes, March 2007)

Applying WRF to West Africa (Staff Notes, March 2007)

Connecting the dots: Earth science partnerships between South and North America (UCAR Quarterly,Winter 2006-2007)

Research, Technology, and Support

NCAR Research: Climate, meteorology, societal impacts, pollution/air chemistry, Earth system, Sun and space weather

NCAR Technology & Support: Research expeditions, modeling, cyberinfrastructure, applied mathematics, facilities/instrumentation, data, tech transfer

NCAR Research Applications Laboratory: Research, development, and tech transfer solutions for aviation , national security, numerical weather prediction, hydrometeorology, surface transportation, verification, and societal impacts. RAL is home to the Institute for the Study of Society and Environment.

UCAR Programs: Community projects, community support, education and training, data services and software

Community Models

Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Community Climate System Model

More Community Modeling at NCAR

Community Data and Data Services

COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3: Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate

UCAR Unidata Program

Community Data Portal and More Data Sets

back to top

Politics, science and the question of global warming and hurricane intensity

Greg Holland, Senior Scientist and
Director of the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division, NCAR
August 2006

Published article

Mixing Politics and Science in Testing a Hurricane Hypothesis

Abstract

The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active and costly season on record. Recent publications linking an increase in hurricane intensity to increasing tropical sea surface temperatures have fueled the debate on whether or not global warming is causing an increase in hurricane intensity. Because of the substantial implications of the hurricane–global warming issue for society and the immediate policy relevance associated with decision making related to Hurricane Katrina, attacks and rebuttals related to this research are being made in the media and on the World Wide Web without the rigor or accountability expected of scientific discourse. In this paper, we aim to promote a balanced and thoughtful examination of this subject by

• clarifying the debate surrounding the subject as to whether or not global warming is causing an increase in global hurricane intensity,

• illustrating a methodology of hypothesis testing to address multiple criticisms of a complex hypothesis that involves a causal chain, and

• providing a case study of the impact of politics, the media, and the World Wide Web on the scientific process.

The full article is available for download at no charge as a PDF by selecting "Print Version" on the article's Web page on the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society site.

Related Links

News Release: Hurricanes Are Getting Stronger, Study Says (September 15, 2005)

Backgrounder: Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones

back to top

Tom M.L. Wigley, Senior Scientist, NCAR
Spring 2006

Published articles

Summary

Tom Wigley in 1998 reported research showing that adherence to the Kyoto Protocol alone, without subsequent action, would have a minimal impact on global warming.

Wigley concluded in the article, published in Geophysical Research Letters, "This does not mean that the actions implied by the Protocol are unnecessary." He called the protocol an important first step while pointing out that much more must be done after Kyoto to reduce future global warming by a significant amount.

Wigley used computer modeling to test several emissions scenarios for the "Annex B" countries—the industrialized and nearly industrialized countries called upon to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the protocol. Each scenario was played out through 2010 (the midpoint of the Kyoto commitment period of 2008–2012) and then extended to the end of the century.

The first scenario looked at what would happen if, after the protocol expires, the Annex B countries continued to abide by Kyoto's limits but did not make any new commitments to further cut emissions for the rest of the century.

This "constant compliance" scenario would shave 0.11 to 0.21 degrees Celsius (0.20–0.38 degrees Fahrenheit) off global average temperatures by 2100. Stated another way, instead of heating up by 2.5°C (4.5°F), a midpoint in the range of projections of global warming, Earth would warm approximately 6% less.

For comparison, the study also examined a "business as usual" or "no climate policy" case. The starting point was IS92a, an emissions scenario included in the 2001 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, that incorporates a slight tapering off in emissions later this century due to global economic and social activities unrelated to climate change.

Wigley concluded that the impact on projected temperature increases, with all countries doing only what is required under Kyoto and then continuing with business as usual, would be a scant 0.06 to 0.11°C (0.11 to 0.20°F) shaved off the total warming, roughly a 3% reduction.

He also considered a third scenario in which the Annex B countries continue to reduce their emissions after the Kyoto period by 1% per year (a scenario that, like the other two scenarios, assumes continued growth of emissions in developing countries at a business-as-usual rate). In this case, the warming reduction by 2100 would be some 14%.

In a 2005 article in Science, Wigley found that Earth is already warming due to human actions. Averting further warming will require a global reduction in human-generated greenhouse gases by all nations, developed and developing, to substantially below present levels.

Published Article: The Kyoto Protocol

Wigley, T.M.L. (1998), "The Kyoto Protocol: CO₂, CH₄ and climate implications," Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 25, pp. 2285–88.

Abstract

Kyoto Protocol implications for CO₂, temperature and sea level are examined. Three scenarios for post-Kyoto emissions reductions are considered. In all cases, the long-term consequences are small. The limitations specified under the Protocol are interpreted in terms of both CO₂ and CH₄ emissions reductions and a new emissions comparison index, the Forcing Equivalence Index (FEI), is introduced. The use of GWPs [Global Warming Potential values] to assess CO₂-equivalence is assessed.

Excerpts from the conclusion, with annotations

Three Kyoto Protocol cases have been examined. These extend the Protocol beyond [2010]¹ by assuming no further reductions in Annex B emissions;² constant Annex B emissions; or a decline in Annex B emissions at 1% compound per year.³

----------

Large additional emissions reductions are required at some future date (certainly earlier than 2040) if concentration stabilization is to be achieved at 550 ppmv [parts per million by volume] or lower.

----------

Finally, reductions in temperature and sea level rise under the Protocol and the extensions considered here are relatively small, but nonetheless important as a first step towards stabilizing the climate system. (emphasis added)

Related Article: The Climate Change Commitment

Wigley, T.M.L. (2005), "The Climate Change Commitment," Science, vol. 307, pp. 1766–69.

Abstract

Even if atmospheric composition were fixed today, global-mean temperature and sea level rise would continue due to oceanic thermal inertia. These constant-composition (CC) commitments and their uncertainties are quantified. Constant-emissions (CE) commitments are also considered. The CC warming commitment could exceed 1°C. The CE warming commitment is 2° to 6°C by the year 2400. For sea level rise, the CC commitment is 10 centimeters per century (extreme range approximately 1 to 30 centimeters per century) and the CE commitment is 25 centimeters per century (7 to 50 centimeters per century). Avoiding these changes requires, eventually, a reduction in emissions to substantially below present levels. For sea level rise, a substantial long-term commitment may be impossible to avoid.

Excerpt from the conclusion

The CE results reinforce the common knowledge that, in order to stabilize global-mean temperatures, we eventually need to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to well below present levels.⁴ The CC results are potentially more alarming, because they are based on a future scenario that is clearly impossible to achieve and so represent an extreme lower bound to climate change over the next few centuries. For temperature, they show that the inertia of the climate system alone will guarantee continued warming and that this warming may eventually exceed 1°C. For sea level, a continued rise of about 10 cm/century for many centuries is the best estimate. Although such a slow rate may allow many coastal communities to adapt, profound long-term impacts on low-lying island communities and on vulnerable ecosystems (such as coral reefs) seem inevitable. (emphasis added)

 Related Links 

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (three languages available)

         Relationship of Kyoto Protocol to UN Framework Convention

                  Text of the Kyoto Protocol (six languages available)

UN Environment Programme: Climate Change

Excerpts from interview with Tom Wigley, Earth & Sky Radio Series

For research

MAGICC and SCENGEN Computer Models

These coupled, interactive software suites were used in the 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report and by Wigley for the 1998 article. The software allows experimenters to investigate future climate change and its uncertainties at both the global-mean and regional levels.

back to top

Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section, NCAR
Winter 2004, updated June 2006

Published articles and news conference

Published article: Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005

Trenberth, K. E., and D. J. Shea (2006), "Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005," Geophysical Research Letters, 27 June, 33, L12704.

News Release: Global Warming Surpassed Natural Cycles in Fueling 2005 Hurricane Season, NCAR Scientists Conclude (June 22, 2006)

Perspective article: Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming

Trenberth, Kevin (2005), "Climate: Uncertainty in Hurricanes and Global Warming, Science, 17 June, vol. 308, no. 5729, pp. 1753–1754.

News Release: Hurricanes To Intensify as Earth Warms (June 16, 2005)

News conference, October 21, 2004

Center for Health and Global Environment
Harvard Medical School, Cambridge, Massachusetts

Written statement distributed at news conference

Human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere and global warming is happening as a result. Global warming is manifested in unexpected ways. Sea level has risen 1.25 inches in the past 10 years as a result of warming of the oceans and glacier melting. The environment in which hurricanes form is changing. The result was a hurricane in late March 2004 in the South Atlantic, off the coast of Brazil: the first and only such hurricane in that region. Several factors go into forming hurricanes and where they track. But the evidence strongly suggests more intense storms and risk of greater flooding events, so that the North Atlantic hurricane season of 2004 may well be a harbinger of the future.

Opening statement excerpts

Global sea level has risen about an inch and a quarter in the past 10 years. This is good information—the first time we've had global information from satellites using a process called altimetry. Now most of this rise in sea level is due to expansion of the ocean as it warms up, and maybe 20 to 35% is from melting of glaciers. So the sea surface temperature is rising globally. It's been about 1 degree Fahrenheit over the 20th century and it's risen in particular in recent times in the Atlantic and other regions, of course, that affect hurricanes.

----------

And of course this is the fuel for the hurricanes and it also means that the hurricanes end up dropping a lot more precipitation and rainfall as a result. And so the environment in which these hurricanes form is changing and it's changing in ways that provide more fuel for them through the water vapor and the changes in sea surface temperature. 

----------

What we can say is that the high sea surface temperatures of water vapor make for more intense storms, and so this is consistent with the evidence that we're seeing. And so this is the main link with global warming that we can establish at the current time.

And so this is supported also by the modeling evidence and the theoretical evidence. There was a certain amount of activity regarding a paper that came out recently by a group headed by Tom Knutson at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory—laboratory for those of you, if I say it in American. And that supports the idea that indeed hurricanes are apt to become more intense in the future. So a key consequence, I think, is certainly perhaps increased damage from winds, but I think the biggest consequence is likely to be more heavy rains and flooding.

Other participants

• Paul Epstein, M.D.
  Associate Director, Center for Health and the Global Environment, Harvard Medical School
  
• Jim McCarthy
  Professor of Biological Oceanography, Harvard University
  
• Matthias Weber
  Senior Vice President and Chief Property Underwriter, U.S. Direct Americas Division, Swiss Re

Transcript of news conference

Full transcript PDF version

Streaming audio from the Center for Health and Global Environment

Related Links

Backgrounder: Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones

back to top

Files with the PDF symbol require free Adobe Reader Software